How IQ reads a matchAI

IQ is BallIQ's AI. Its percentages come from a fixed statistical formula — the same inputs always give the same numbers — and the short written analysis is produced by Claude (Anthropic) from those numbers only.

The four factors

Every read combines four signals, each scaled to its own range, then weighted into a home / draw / away split that sums to 100.

• 25%Venue-split form. The home side's recent home games against the away side's recent away games, scored 3 / 1 / 0.
• 20%Goal expectancy. Home attack against away defence, and the mirror, over venue-matched games.
• 15%League position. The gap in the live table — for each team's own competition, never another one.
• 8%Head to head. A small nudge from recent meetings.

A 5% home advantage is added on top. It was cut from 8% in June 2026 after a 304-match backtest showed the formula over-rating hosts. The draw share grows as the two sides get closer.

When there is no read

Both teams must have played at least three games this season (all competitions). Until then the match shows no percentages at all — "too early in the season" — rather than a guess dressed up as a number.

What the card line means

The one-line read on each card is written by code, not by the AI, from facts in the data: home and away streaks, unbeaten or winless runs, goal rates, and how the two sides compare at this venue. Every number in it can be checked on the match page.

How accuracy is counted

IQ's pick is the highest of the three percentages at kickoff. A tie at the top means no pick. The 90-day record is published on the accuracy page, by league, including the misses.

What BallIQ does not do

• No odds and no betting tips. No wagers recommended, no bookmaker links.
• No paid placement. Every match is read the same way.
• No invented facts. The written analysis may only use numbers that appear on the page; anything else is rejected before publication.

Data and limits

Fixtures, results and tables come from football-data.org and refresh every 12 minutes, with a full recalculation each night. No formula sees injuries, line-ups, weather or luck. A strong read means the numbers agree, not that the result is certain.

Questions? Telegram @BallIQco